Cod "doomed" due to climate change.

[Jaffa]

Happy New Year all

 

Seems Wurzel has paid off the Sunday Times!

 

Either that or they have been reading this forum for the past year or so!

 

"Cod doomed"

 

The Sunday Times - Scotland

 

The Sunday Times January 01, 2006

 

Cod doomed - and it's the climate's fault

Camillo Fracassini

 

CLIMATE change, rather than overfishing, is the pricipal cause of falling cod stocks in the North Sea, and conservation measures imposed by the European Union will do nothing to reverse the decline, a new study has revealed.

 

Changes in the North Atlantic current, caused by global warming, have disrupted supplies of plankton, which are essential for the survival of newly hatched cod.

 

According to the study by the Natural Environment Research Council, the amount of vital plankton in the North Sea has plummeted by 50%.

 

Researchers investigating marine productivity say the decline in cod stocks is now irreversible.

 

“No amount of fishery regulation is going to bring the cod stocks back. The fate of cod is commercial extinction,” said Dr Martin Angel, a government adviser who led the study.

 

Academics at the Southampton Oceanography Centre, the marine laboratory in Aberdeen and the University of Strathclyde analysed hundreds of plankton samples collected from the North Sea. The plankton, which used to be carried to cod spawning grounds by the North Atlantic current, is now drifting further north.

 

“Probably the main reason for the lack of success of cod to recover after overfishing is that the ecosystem has changed and the Calanus finmarchicus is no longer in the right place at the right time,” said Angel. “Normally this plankton is carried to cod spawning grounds, but the current has changed and they are now drifting to the southeast of Greenland.

 

“At this critical period, when cod require to feed on high plankton densities, the plankton they favour is no longer there.”

 

While Calanus finmarchicus used to account for about 80% of plankton in the North Sea, it now accounts for just 40%. A new species of plankton that thrives in the warmer waters is becoming more common, however it spawns at the wrong time of year for the cod larvae.

 

Angel believes the changes in the North Atlantic current will have far-reaching implications for the environment.

 

“The engine of the Atlantic current — the cold, salty water that used to drive it — has been switched off,” he said. “This will have a major impact on global climate because the oceans distribute energy over the surface of the globe. The seas off Britain appear to be getting warmer and the animals are responding to that.”

 

Dr Richard Dixon, director of WWF Scotland, added: “These findings do look very significant and it may already be too late for some species.

 

“While we have seen interesting changes with birds moving further north, butterflies changing their distribution and trees flowering at the wrong time of year, this is clear evidence of a fundamental change in the marine ecosystem, which will make a really big difference.

 

“Half of Scotland’s plants and animals live in the sea and a large part of our diet and economy are based on there being a diversity of life in the oceans.”

 

Michael Park, chairman of the Scottish White Fish Producer’s Association, said Angel’s findings were supported by the experience of Scottish fishermen.

 

“At every branch meeting I have attended — which constitute around 70% of the UK catching industry — my members have asked when the water temperature and other environmental issues are going to be taken seriously,” he said.

 

“There have been big changes. We have a big squid fishery in the northeast, which we never had before, while the pink shrimp has disappeared.

 

“The North Sea is increasing in temperature by about one degree per decade, which is a sprint in ecological terms. There has been a decrease in plankton since the 1970s, but it has fallen off the edge of the scale recently, and cod, which are dependant on it during the early stages of life, are suffering as a result.

 

“Meanwhile, the targets we are facing to get the stocks up to recovery are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.”

 

Angel’s finding follows recent research by the UK National Oceanography Centre, which found that the Gulf Stream — which carries warm water to Europe from the tropics — has weakened dramatically in recent years.

 

We live in " Interesting times"

 

Chris.

[wurzel]

Can I say " I told you so " now.

[wurzel]

Oh and a happy new year to you as well Jaffa

[Jaffa]

Can I say " I told you so " now.

 

While your at it, maybe you could try and explain why the Scots fleet are a wee bit peeved, at being prevented from making a living fishing species that are there, to protect one that apparently no longer belongs here!

 

Who can tell me how to catch some of these NE squid from a kayak ?

[Jaffa]

Got dangerously close to actual angling with that last question!

 

Its New Year, im curious about old stories; which do you reckon is more likely to be true?

 

a. The Canute legend most people seem to know, ie "mad/daft" king tries to stop tide by ordering it to stop.

b. "Wise king Canute" demonstrates the stupidity of his officers actions by sitting on a beach, ordering the tide to stop, and getting soaked.

c. It never happened but was good politics

d. Something else?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canute_the_Great

 

Canute the Great

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

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Canute the Great

King of England

King of Denmark

King of Norway Canute I the Great

Reign November 30, 1016 - November 12, 1035

Born 995

Denmark

Died November 12, 1035

Shaftesbury, Dorset

Buried Winchester Cathedral

Married Ælgifu

Emma

Parents Sweyn I

Gunhilda

 

Canute(or ****) I', or Canute the Great (Danish: Knud II den Store, Norwegian: Knut den mektige) (994/995 – November 12, 1035) was king of England, Denmark and Norway and governor or overlord of Schleswig and Pomerania. He was the son of sea-king Sweyn Forkbeard who was an avid supporter of the old faith and reputedly a member of the Jomsvikings. Canute's mother was Gunhild (formerly Swiatoslawa daughter of Mieszko I of Poland).

 

Canute was reared by a mother whose own mother had been abducted from a religious house and married to the first Duke of Poland, Mieszko, who later adopted Christianity. This along with his father's stout beliefs was probably the foundation of Canute's pragmatic relation to religion which would later greatly influence both Denmark and Britain.

 

Accompanying his father on his successful invasion of England in August 1013, Canute was proclaimed king by the Danish fleet on Sweyn's death the following February, but returned to Denmark (April 1014) on the restoration of the defeated king Ethelred the Unready by the Witenagemot of English nobles.

 

Invading England once more (August 1015), Canute fought a series of inconclusive conflicts with the English led by Ethelred and (from April 1016) by Ethelred's son, Edmund II of England until his crushing victory (October 1016) at the Battle of Assandun (probably either Ashingdon or Ashdon (known as Ascenduná in the Little Domesday Book of 1086), both in Essex, England). Meeting on an island in the river Severn, Canute and Edmund agreed to divide the kingdom, but Edmund's death (November 1016) left Canute as sole ruler, leading to his acclamation as king by the Witenagemot in January 1017. Canute solidified his new position as supreme ruler by marrying Ethelred's widow, Emma of Normandy, daughter of Richard the Fearless, duke of Normandy. In doing so, he strengthened political and commercial ties between England and Normandy while establishing his intentions to rule in a Christian fashion, as Emma was very devout.

 

As king of England, Canute combined English and Danish institutions and personnel. His mutilation in April 1014 of the hostages taken by his father in pledge of English loyalty is remembered above all as being uncharacteristic of his rule. His codification (c.1020) of England's laws overlaid an element of uniformity on Saxon tradition.

 

By dividing the country (1017) after the Danish fashion into the four great earldoms of Wessex, Mercia, East Anglia and Northumbria, he instituted the system of territorial lordships which would underlie English government for centuries. The very last Danegeld ever to be paid, a sum of £82,500, was paid to Canute in 1018. He felt secure enough to send the invasion fleet back to Denmark with a payment of £72,000 that same year.

 

In order to associate his line with the overthrown English dynasty and to insure himself against attack from Normandy (place of exile of Ethelred's sons Edward and Alfred), Canute married (July 1017) Ethelred's widow Emma of Normandy, later designating their son Harthacanute as heir in preference to Harold, his (illegitimate?) son by Aelgifu of Northampton, a concubine.

 

In 1018 (or 1019) Canute succeeded his elder brother Harold II as king of Denmark, and appointed his brother-in-law Ulf Jarl as the earl of Denmark.

 

When the Swedish king Anund Jakob and the Norwegian king Saint Olaf took advantage of Canute's absence and attacked Denmark, Ulf convinced the freemen to elect Harthacanute king, since they were miscontent with Canute's absenteeism. This was a ruse from Ulf since his role as the caretaker of Harthacanute would make him the ruler of Denmark.

 

When Canute learnt of what had happened in 1026, he returned to Denmark and with Ulf Jarl's help, he defeated the Swedes and the Norwegians at the Battle of Helgeå. This service, did not, however, make Canute forgive Ulf for his coup. At a banquet in Roskilde, the two brothers-in-law were playing chess and started arguing with each other. The next day, the Christmas of 1026, Canute had one of his Housecarls kill Ulf Jarl in the church of Trinity. The accounts of the two brothers and Ulf's death are contradictory.

 

In 1028, Canute conquered Norway with a fleet of fifty ships from England: his attempt to govern Norway through Aelgifu and his other son by her, Sweyn, ended in rebellion and the restoration of the former Norwegian dynasty under Magnus I.

Silver coin coined for Canute the Great

Enlarge

Silver coin coined for Canute the Great

 

Conrad II, Holy Roman Emperor was friendly with Canute and had his young son Henry married to Canute's daughter Cunigunde (Gunhilda). The emperor gave Canute the Mark of Schleswig and Pomerania to govern. The latter was probably the fief of Canute, since Boleslaus I of Poland sent his army to help Canute conquer England.

 

Canute is generally regarded as a wise and successful king of England, although this view may in part be attributable to his good treatment of the church, which controlled the history writers of the day. Thus we see him described even today as a religious man, despite the fact that he lived openly in what was effectively a bigamous relationship, and despite his responsibility for many political murders.

He is perhaps best remembered for the legend of how he commanded the waves to go back. According to the legend, he grew tired of flattery from his courtiers. When one such flatterer gushed that the king could even command the obedience of the sea, Canute proved him wrong by practical demonstration at Thorney Island, his point being that even a king's powers have limits. Unfortunately, this legend is sometimes misunderstood to mean that he believed himself so powerful that the natural elements would obey him, and that his failure to command the tides only made him look foolish. It is quite possible that the legend is simply pro-Canute propaganda.

 

Canute died in 1035, at Shaftesbury in Dorset, and was buried at Winchester. On his death, Canute was succeeded in Denmark by Harthacanute, reigning as Canute III. Harold took power in England, however, ruling until his death (1040), whereupon the two crowns were again briefly reunited under Harthacanute.

 

I offer no excuse for this post, other than being the duty driver, followed by several home measures of whisky. Elton, let this piece of madness pass?

 

Nite all

[big_cod]

Hi chris interesting reading that report .

But there is one sentence which absolutly correct even if the rest is only an assumtion.

 

PROBABLY THE MAIN REASON FOR THE LACK OF SUCCESS FOR THE COD TO RECOVER AFTER OVERFISHING.

 

Overfishing is prime reason we are in the position we are now and the cod will not come back over night the ecosystem is a fine balance and if you take a species which was abundent for thousands of years and give it a hammering and them put a cod recovery program into practice which has only been running 2 years or so correction which has been abided by in the last 2 years it aint gone recover instantly its going to take many many years.

 

Lets just hope they do recover and i am confident they will if they are managed correctly i think the fishermen in the faroes have right idea long line only and they have a very good fisherie thats where most of your cod and chips come from excluding the chips.

[Guest @Winter@]

Sounds like your conspiracy theory is right boys. Defra and the Eu must be putting in all this hard work just to keep themselves in a job.

 

Jaffa wouldnt 50% food reduction mean a drop in fish numbers certainly but still enough to support 50% of the cod it used to? There is certainly less than 50% of numbers seen in the 60's-late 80's so where did the rest go? or would it not be such a simple equation?

 

Ben Bradshawe recently said that it was very clear the cod's demise was due to overfishing. He said a majority of people believe this to be the case and only a hand full of mavericks offer an opposing opinion.

Now I realise at a certain point in History the majority of the world believed the Earth to be flat, but in this case Chris 1 or 2 pieces of research amongst an abundance of opposing perspectives is not enough my Friend. As we have discussed many times before in this type of Science, which most certainly is not an exact science by any means, it is always possible to produce a desired result and use statistuics to say it is a certainty, Scientists at times can make black look white and often do. Camillo Fracassini is amongst a minority which the Fishing industry will always continue to exploit.

 

Wurzel you will be in no position to say I told you so for at least 30 years or even longer and at that point if were both still alive I hope it will be me who is saying I told you say.

 

Sorry if my disagreal offends anyone but it's not in my nature to agree just to keep things quiet. The report post button is in its usual place.

Edited January 3, 2006 by @Winter@

[DoubleShotDamo]

Jaffa wouldnt 50% food reduction mean a drop in fish numbers certainly but still enough to support 50% of the cod it used to? There is certainly less than 50% of numbers seen in the 60's-late 80's so where did the rest go? or would it not be such a simple equation?

 

 

 

I totally agree. Climate change and overfishing are to blame. If a stock of fish is looking vulnerable for some reason (i.e. climate change) you don't go and hammer it and expect it to still be there years later!

[A Norfolk Boy]

Does anybody seriously think that the decline is due to only one cause? Could it really JUST be overfishing, or JUST climate change? It's not realistic is it? Granted, one may have had more influence than the other but they will combine, and then with factors such as pollution.

[wurzel]

Hello big cod

 

Quote

if you take a species which was abundent for thousands of years

 

 

There is no evidence that it was abundent for thousands of years, in fact I think the oppisite would be more accurate.