Preparing for a hurricane

[Newt]

Getting ready for a hurricane really depends on where the thing is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. Sometimes this is fairly easy but sometimes, its almost impossible.

 

Right now a system named Erika is approaching from the south east. Here is the current prediction by one of the best tropical weather guys in the business.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3091

 

 

A weak trough of low pressure capable of turning Erika to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, and it is possible that Erika will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough and turn to the north just before reaching the Florida coast on Sunday evening or Monday morning. If Erika stays weak, the storm is more likely to plow into Florida. To further complicate matters, steering currents may collapse next week, allowing Erika to wander offshore the Southeast U.S. coast for many days. I give a 20% chance that Erika will end up being a landfalling hurricane for the U.S. East Coast, a 20% chance storm will dissipate by Saturday, a 30% chance the storm will be too weak and disorganized to have time to organize into a hurricane before hitting the U.S. East Coast, and a 30% chance that Erika will miss the U.S. East Coast entirely.

[Chris Plumb]

I think that's called 'hedging your bets'!

 

C.

[Newt]

Tracking - it seems odd until you really think about it but smallish storms usually don't have really high tops but if the same storm grows stronger, it can go much higher so conditions at 10K (winds, pressure ridges, etc.) feet may steer a large storm but not affect a smaller one that may top out at 5000-7000 feet.

 

Combine that with the fact that Hispanola and, to a lesser extent, Puerto Rico have high mountains that often destroy hurricanes that pass over them while if it tracked a hundred miles further north, it would grow stronger as it entered the much warmer Gulf of Mexico waters.

 

He certainly is hedging his bets but in this case, I'm not sure what else he could do. Way too many "if this then that" possibilities.

[Vagabond]

All in all,by and large, and all things being equal, not too far away from Chester's 50:50 philosophy then.

[Ken L]

Bl00dy butterflies.....

[Phone]

Newt,

 

I notice enough people have fled Florida the reduced weight has made the state rise 4 1/2 inches out of the water. Should help those that remain,

 

I'm with Chesters1 on this one also.

 

Phone

 

It's like the tornado theory - 10,000 houses in the area - only 7 were totally destroyed and only 3 people died - - don't worry about tornados.

[Newt]

I'm not personally worried about this one since if it makes it this far, all we will get is lots of much needed rain and a little wind. South Florida could also use the rain but not the wind so much. Central Florida had too much recently along with quite a bit of flooding so they are probably praying for a miss but the area from the Panhandle north through a bunch of states will welcome the water.

 

I have a son & family in Orlando (central Florida) who may need to keep a boat on stand-by.

[chesters1]

Newt,

 

I notice enough people have fled Florida the reduced weight has made the state rise 4 1/2 inches out of the water. Should help those that remain,

 

I'm with Chesters1 on this one also.

 

Phone

 

It's like the tornado theory - 10,000 houses in the area - only 7 were totally destroyed and only 3 people died - - don't worry about tornados.

50/50 its the right choice

[Ken L]

Well, that one fizzled out, just leaving heavy rain over southern Florida. There is another depression forming south of the Azores though.

[chesters1]

I think they are all using the "fish" (hurricane what hurricane) scenario as a template for weather forecasters not actually being able to predict weather conditions any further forward than looking out the window.

They have cottoned on if you always give the worst outlook then few will complain when its not as bad as they tell you

 

This is as good as your going to get half the time ,as seen in this weather related documentory

Edited August 30, 2015 by chesters1