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#1 Ken L

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 10:21 AM

The current outbreak in West Africa is a bit weird.

First they said it was Ebols, then a study said it wasn't and now it's back to being Ebola.

It's in an area with no recorded history of outbreaks hundreds/thousands of miles away from the previuosly known range of the disease in East Africa.

It's cropping up over a wide geographical area with cases in several countries.

Cases are appearing that don't seem to be linked to the other known cases in the affected area.

The mortality rate is very high.

 

This could get really nasty.

 

Insert conspiracy theory here.....

 

 


Species caught in 2019: Pike. Bream. Tench. Chub. Common Carp. European Eel.

Species caught in 2018: Perch. Bream. Rainbow Trout. Brown Trout. Chub. Roach. Carp. European Eel.
Species caught in 2017: Siamese carp. Striped catfish. Rohu. Mekong catfish. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima.  Black Minnow Shark. Perch. Chub. Brown Trout. Pike. Bream. Roach. Rudd. Bleak. Common Carp.
Species caught in 2016: Siamese carp. Jullien's golden carp. Striped catfish. Mekong catfish. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima. Alligator gar. Rohu. Black Minnow Shark. Roach, Bream, Perch, Ballan Wrasse. Rudd. Common Carp. Pike. Zander. Chub. Bleak.
Species caught in 2015: Brown Trout. Roach. Bream. Terrapin. Eel. Barbel. Pike. Chub. 
Species caught in 2014: Striped catfish. Pacu. Giant gourami. Clown knife fish. Rohu. Siamese carp. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima. Roach. Bream. Perch. Rainbow trout. Chub. Common Carp, Ide. Brown Trout. Barbel. Mekong catfish. Jullien's golden carp. Alligator gar. Java barb.
Species caught in 2013: Mangrove Jack. Barramundi. Blubberlip snapper. Baracouda. Malabar grouper. Yellowfin Trevally. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Roach. Pike. European Eel. Bleak.
Species caught in 2012: Northern whiting. Moray eel. Barramundi. Snakehead murrel. Silver razorbelly minnow. Deccan Mahseer. Malabar mystus. Deccan rita. Spotted Malabar Grouper. Mangrove Jack. Indian sea catfish. Brown Trout. Chub. Perch. Roach. Rudd.
Species caught in 2011: Indian sea catfish. Sardine. Barramundi. Mangrove Jack. Deccan Mahseer. Record Humpbacked Mahseer. Yellow Fin Trevelly. Giant Trevelly. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Pike. Atlantic salmon. Dace. Minnow. Roach. Gudgeon. 
Species caught in 2010: Barramundi. Giant Trevelly. Moray eel. Indian sea catfish. Mangrove Jack. Deccan Mahseer. Humpback Mahseer. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Bass. Pike. 
Species caught in 2009: Chub. Perch. Pike. Pacu. Thai Striped Catfish. 
Species caught in 2008: Barramundi. p-i-k-e-y sea bream. Indian sea catfish. Guitarfish. Mangrove Jack. Mahseer. Squid (Not strictly a fish but it took a lure !). Emperor Sweetlip. Black Spot Snapper. Moray eel. Spangled Emperor. Bluecheek silver grunt. Yellow striped emperor. Vanikoro sweeper. Pike. Perch. Brown trout. Chub. Atlantic salmon.


#2 chesters1

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 10:45 AM

Easy place to test nasty bio weapons (wink)
I always find it alarming the government invite it over here by not immediately closing all ports and airports to incoming traffic from the area for several years
When rumsfeld made millions flogging us stuff to combat the avian flu "outbreak" why wasnt the country shut to people from the affected country as well?

Edited by chesters1, 04 April 2014 - 10:50 AM.

Believe NOTHING anyones says or writes unless you witness  it yourself and even then your eyes can deceive you

 

There is only one opinion i listen to ,its mine and its ALWAYS right even when its wrong

 

Its far easier to curse the darkness than light one candle

 

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"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors, is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson


#3 Steve Walker

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 10:47 AM

MSF playing it up, WHO playing it down. Still fewer cases than in previous outbreaks, and half of the cases are medical staff.

#4 Steve Walker

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 10:52 AM

I've always thought that a viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak would be an ideal opportunity for low tech bioterrorism by the kind of terrorists who consider themselves disposable in their cause. No high tech needed, just people willing to infect themselves and travel during the incubation period. Imagine the panic caused a few days after a suicide bombing when it is realised what the bomber was infected with. I wonder if there are measures to protect outbreak zones from jihadists?

#5 chesters1

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 10:55 AM

I've always thought that a viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak would be an ideal opportunity for low tech bioterrorism by the kind of terrorists who consider themselves disposable in their cause. No high tech needed, just people willing to infect themselves and travel during the incubation period. Imagine the panic caused a few days after a suicide bombing when it is realised what the bomber was infected with. I wonder if there are measures to protect outbreak zones from jihadists?

Yes we point guns at their families ,rarely works though hmmmmmm

Strange humans dont learn from history ,spain deliberately killed a third of our population and still we let them in

Edited by chesters1, 04 April 2014 - 10:57 AM.

Believe NOTHING anyones says or writes unless you witness  it yourself and even then your eyes can deceive you

 

There is only one opinion i listen to ,its mine and its ALWAYS right even when its wrong

 

Its far easier to curse the darkness than light one candle

 

Mathew 4:19

 

"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors, is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson


#6 Steve Walker

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 11:04 AM

Strange humans dont learn from history ,spain deliberately killed a third of our population and still we let them in

Never mind the Spanish, have you heard what the pigs and birds are up to, the devious beasts!

#7 Ken L

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 11:08 AM

Ebola as a bioweapon was the theme of the Tom Clancy novel "Executive Orders" (one of his better works) and yes, the bad guys were Jihadists.

That story involved the complicated use of monkeys to produce quantities of virus but as you say, all it takes is a big enough group of people who are willing to become infected and havoc could ensue - particularly if they are prepared to blow themselves up in areas where a lot of people would come into contact with the mist of bodily fulids.

 

It may not require terrorism to get nasty though, if the geographical dispersal of cases is due to something other that the comparatively easy transport in West Africa (longer incubation period, easier transmission, or someone deliberately infecting people), this could get unpleasant without the input of the religion of peace.


Edited by Ken L, 04 April 2014 - 11:10 AM.

Species caught in 2019: Pike. Bream. Tench. Chub. Common Carp. European Eel.

Species caught in 2018: Perch. Bream. Rainbow Trout. Brown Trout. Chub. Roach. Carp. European Eel.
Species caught in 2017: Siamese carp. Striped catfish. Rohu. Mekong catfish. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima.  Black Minnow Shark. Perch. Chub. Brown Trout. Pike. Bream. Roach. Rudd. Bleak. Common Carp.
Species caught in 2016: Siamese carp. Jullien's golden carp. Striped catfish. Mekong catfish. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima. Alligator gar. Rohu. Black Minnow Shark. Roach, Bream, Perch, Ballan Wrasse. Rudd. Common Carp. Pike. Zander. Chub. Bleak.
Species caught in 2015: Brown Trout. Roach. Bream. Terrapin. Eel. Barbel. Pike. Chub. 
Species caught in 2014: Striped catfish. Pacu. Giant gourami. Clown knife fish. Rohu. Siamese carp. Amazon red tail catfish. Arapaima. Roach. Bream. Perch. Rainbow trout. Chub. Common Carp, Ide. Brown Trout. Barbel. Mekong catfish. Jullien's golden carp. Alligator gar. Java barb.
Species caught in 2013: Mangrove Jack. Barramundi. Blubberlip snapper. Baracouda. Malabar grouper. Yellowfin Trevally. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Roach. Pike. European Eel. Bleak.
Species caught in 2012: Northern whiting. Moray eel. Barramundi. Snakehead murrel. Silver razorbelly minnow. Deccan Mahseer. Malabar mystus. Deccan rita. Spotted Malabar Grouper. Mangrove Jack. Indian sea catfish. Brown Trout. Chub. Perch. Roach. Rudd.
Species caught in 2011: Indian sea catfish. Sardine. Barramundi. Mangrove Jack. Deccan Mahseer. Record Humpbacked Mahseer. Yellow Fin Trevelly. Giant Trevelly. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Pike. Atlantic salmon. Dace. Minnow. Roach. Gudgeon. 
Species caught in 2010: Barramundi. Giant Trevelly. Moray eel. Indian sea catfish. Mangrove Jack. Deccan Mahseer. Humpback Mahseer. Chub. Brown Trout. Perch. Bass. Pike. 
Species caught in 2009: Chub. Perch. Pike. Pacu. Thai Striped Catfish. 
Species caught in 2008: Barramundi. p-i-k-e-y sea bream. Indian sea catfish. Guitarfish. Mangrove Jack. Mahseer. Squid (Not strictly a fish but it took a lure !). Emperor Sweetlip. Black Spot Snapper. Moray eel. Spangled Emperor. Bluecheek silver grunt. Yellow striped emperor. Vanikoro sweeper. Pike. Perch. Brown trout. Chub. Atlantic salmon.


#8 kirisute

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 11:20 AM

*preparing Zombie survival kit*

this is how the book World War Z started!!!

 

if any of you have an ipad or android then try the game Plague Inc

http://www.ndemiccre...n/22-plague-inc

its a real eye opener on disease and virus spreading and quite fun.


Edited by kirisute, 04 April 2014 - 11:22 AM.


#9 Steve Walker

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 11:36 AM

It could get very nasty, although it is in the nature of VHFs to be somewhat self-limiting - fast burn rate, no airborne transmission - don't touch sick or dead people and you will be OK. The big fear is that it might become airborne, like Reston, however if this one is spreading further than previous strains it could be something as simple as a longer incubation period.

I don't know when during the incubation period it becomes infectious. The WHO says that asymptomatic male survivors of the disease can transmit the virus in their semen for up to seven weeks after recovery. So there is a possible route for sexual transmission. If there were a strain with a longer, infectious incubation period, and it got into a high risk promiscuous population - say prostitutes in a large city...

#10 snakey1

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 12:08 PM

Could be a mutated version of the Tai forest virus (a member of the ebolavirus genus) that was first found in the Cote d'Ivoire (which is probably the closest recorded outbreak) and of course as fruitbats are thought to possibly be one of the natural reservoirs for the virus the area the virus covers could be larger than expected. see http://www.who.int/c...090510.png?ua=1


Edited by snakey1, 04 April 2014 - 12:11 PM.