Midge forecasting system launched to help tourists and locals alike

The world’s first ever midge forecasting system is being launched on Monday May 29, by Advanced Pest Solutions (APS) – a company established by leading biting midge specialist Dr Alison Blackwell.

The new forecast – which has been developed with funding from Calor Gas and Scottish Enterprise – will be available at www.midgeforecast.co.uk and will be published daily in the Press and Journal, which is the established daily newspaper in northern Scotland where biting midges are most prevalent.

The forecast will provide people with daily information about the likely intensity of biting midge activity in any part of Scotland. This information will be useful for people planning their outdoor leisure activities, as well as businesses such as forestry where people work outside.

“My colleagues and I have been studying local midge populations throughout Scotland for many years” explains Dr Blackwell. “After collecting several years of midge population data, combined with historical local weather data, we were able to establish a relationship between weather and midge activity. From this we have been able to formulate a midge forecast that can predict midge activity in any given location throughout Scotland.”

APS, currently based at the University of Edinburgh, combines its midge density data with Met Office weather forecast data to calculate the midge forecast. The forecast is further verified with midge catch data provided by Dr Blackwell’s network of Midgeater midge traps and sophisticated weather stations that stretches from Shetland in the north to the Borders.

“We decided that the forecast should go beyond the usual known midge problem areas of the North and West of Scotland, as in recent years we have found incidences of biting midges in almost all parts of the country,” comments Dr Blackwell. “Although midge activity in places such as the outskirts of Edinburgh is never going to be anything like the problem it is in the highlands, even a few bites can be enough to ruin a barbecue or other outdoor activity.”

Dr Blackwell does not necessarily expect people to change their plans if the midge forecast indicates that they might be bitten, but it will allow them to consider using repellents or an insect trap such as a Midgeater to help alleviate the problem.

The new forecasting service provides an indication of predicted midge levels in a similar way to the popular pollen forecasts that are presented in various media. APS will also provide a longer term, five day forecast at the midge forecast website which will help people plan their activities in advance.

“The five day forecast will be useful for holiday makers, as they will be able to use it to help decide which days would be best to visit indoor or outdoor attractions in the same way that a five day weather forecast does,” adds Dr Blackwell. “We are also planning to introduce a text based service that will send midge forecast data directly to mobile phones.”

APS is also offering site-specific midge forecasts to hotels and other businesses which will benefit from knowing an accurate forecast in their immediate area. Subscribers to this service will have a trap and a mini weather station installed at their premises to help refine their local forecast.