Hurricane Rita - what would you do if ...

[Newt]

Assume you are a resident in the Florida Keys. You see the following from a respected Met expert. What would you be doing now if you lived there? If you were a Mayor, Governor in Florida? This is very similar to the New Orleans decision with Katrina. More details Here

quote:

---

Florida Keys residents should pay very close attention to Rita, and check on her strength and forecasted strength early Monday morning, after the 5am NHC advisory is out. After reading the 11pm NHC discussion, which reported that the 67 knot winds measured by the Hurricane Hunters was not representative of the general winds in Rita, I am a little less concerned that Rita will intensify to a major Category 3 hurricane as it passes through the Keys Monday night or Tuesday morning. Also, the cloud tops in Rita have warmed a bit in the past few hours, and it appears that Rita is taking a breather from her recent intensification burst.

 

Still, I don't like what I see. The hurricane hunters found a 40% complete eyewall has formed. The upper level outflow is excellent on the north side, and the storm is over warm 30 - 31C water. I'd give it a 5% chance that Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane passing through the Keys. If I lived in the Keys, I would think real hard about sticking around, just in case that 5% chance verifies. The sudden intensification tonight happened the face of about 10 knots of shear, which one can see impacting the SW side of the storm on satellite imagery. If the shear goes to less than 5 knots, which is expected to happen by Tuesday, Rita will intensify very rapidly. Rita will probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when it moves through the Keys Monday night. The Keys can handle a Category 2 hurricane--barely.

 

The Keys take a full 72 hours to evacuate, and now that New Orleans has been taken out by Katrina, the Keys represent the number one most vulnerable area in the U.S. for serious loss of life from a hurricane strike. Even though the evacuation order has already been given for visitors and tourists, not everyone will be able to make it out if Rita suddenly intensifies tomorrow to a Category 3 status.

 

The nighmare scenario is what happened during the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which intensified from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds in just 42 hours as it approached the Keys. Over 400 Keys residents died in the ensuing disaster.

 

So, if you live in the Keys, get your bag packed. Wake up early tomorrow, and check out the 5am advisory. If Rita is a hurricane by then, consider hitting the road early. But if the roads are totally jammed, it's probably better to ride it out in a sturdy shelter rather than be caught on the 7-Mile Bridge in a hurricane.

 

While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to New Orleans is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas is at the highest risk, though, and needs to watch Rita the most carefully.

---

 

[ 21. September 2005, 07:29 AM: Message edited by: Newt ]

[Vagabond]

Sobering stuff that, especially the last paragraph. Let's hope everyone concerned is well prepared this time.

[Jeff S]

Hurricanes are nothing new to Florida. I'm sure most residents already have contingency plans in place. Either way I would be leaving. As far as representing Florida? - Better to be an alarmist than seeing hundreds perhaps thousands of people die on my watch. My conscience couldn't handle it. OTOH People are going to be very worried especially after Katrina at least until they start to forget the magnitude of it.

 

My daughter lives near the coast in Texas. I'll be watching this one closely.

[n4lly]

 

 

Dont like the look of the yellow and grey tracks

 

They do have a habit of hooking right when they hit the gulf waters

[n4lly]

Looks like Key west is in for a direct hit

 

[Newt]

The question at this point is how much longer they continue to let folks try to evacuate. Probably gonna get hit pretty hard - best estimate is a Cat2 storm in 24-36 hours for the Keys. Best be gone from there but not if it means being on one of the long causeway bridges leading to the mainland.

 

Florida has lots of practice in evacuating that area but it is very much a crap shoot if leaving now gets you to the Florida mainland where you can head north to safety before the storm makes parts of the causeway impassible or not.

 

If you could make it out - that's the best option.

If you could not make it out, weathering a Cat2 storm in your auto on an exposed causeway is not a good way to live a long life.

 

So the question remains for the remaining residents in the Keys, what do you do?

 

The question remains for the authorities, at what point do you cease the manditory evacuation order and make the remaining folks stay put in the strongest shelters they can locate?

 

And I suppose the added question now that the models are all trending the storm toward a northerly turn and making Louisianna a very possible target for a Cat3 or maybe even Cat4 storm, when do they start doing what?

[Leon Roskilly]

One day the Florida Keys will cease to be, or decide to relocate a way from where they are now!

 

Tight Lines - leon

[Leon Roskilly]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

 

"The lower Keys are in for a nasty pounding.

 

This may equal or exceed the most damaging hurricane ever in Key West, which I believe was Category 2 Hurricane Georges in 1998, which brought a 4 - 6 foot storm surge and Category 1 winds to the lower Keys, causing $340 million in damage.

 

Expect roof and moderate structural damage to homes and businesses from Rita.

 

Hundred of mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Large trees and power poles will be toppled.

 

Damage will be at least $1 billion, which will largely be uninsured losses, since many insurance companies won't insure propery in the Keys."

 

 

 

TL - leon

 

[ 20. September 2005, 08:09 AM: Message edited by: Leon Roskilly ]

[mc_mrbishi]

Surely it would be a sensible idea to have a shelter somwhere in the keys if this is possible or near, so those that cant get out early have somewhere to go.

But unlike the superdome they are going to need to have supplies on stand by just in case.

Its better to prepare for something that might happen then not to.

 

But lets hope it doesnt get that bad and if it does, it is better planned for then katrina

 

[ 20. September 2005, 04:13 PM: Message edited by: mc_mrbishi ]

[n4lly]

These guys have stayed and are reporting in to

each other.....

 

web page

 

 

Think they may get away with it wind wise, yet the storm surge may have an effect, Marathon for eg is

at max 7' above sea level.

 

The trend now is for it to keep n/w and go to Texas. Rita could warm up over the Gulf and get

big.