Hurricane Rita - what would you do if ...

[Newt]

n4lly:

Rita could warm up over the Gulf and getbig.

Will - the only real questions are

- how big

- where landfall

 

Cat3 probably; cat4 maybe (hope not).

Texas probably; Louisianna maybe (hope not).

 

It is still amazing to me how much a large storm like Katrina can stir/mix a water the size of the Gulf of Mexico to cause significant water cooling over at least half of the gulf. The light orange areas were several degrees warmer pre-katrina which makes a huge difference in helping a hurricane spin up to strength.

 

[Leon Roskilly]

n4lly:

Marathon for eg is

at max 7' above sea level.

WFTV.com

 

 

"Strengthening Hurricane Rita lashed the Florida Keys on Tuesday with heavy rains and strong winds, threatening the island chain with a 7-foot storm surge"

 

 

 

(I expect that the surge will more likely be 4 - 6 ft! - But then again you have to add on tide and wave height)

 

TL - leon

 

[ 20. September 2005, 05:14 PM: Message edited by: Leon Roskilly ]

[Leon Roskilly]

http://www.wftv.com/weather/4988026/detail.html

 

"As Rita's core passed through the narrow Florida Straits between Key West and Cuba, the storm grew quickly from a minimal hurricane to a stronger Category 2 hurricane with top sustained winds of 100 mph.

 

Hurricane Rita at 1:30pm on Tuesday, September 20.

 

Although the main highway through the Keys was flooded in several spots and nearly 25,000 homes and businesses were without power, authorities said it appeared the island chain would be spared the full fury of Rita.

 

"I think we did, so far, dodge a bullet," said Key West Mayor Jimmy Weekley. "We still have some time to go."

 

At 5 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center said Rita's eye was about 50 miles south-southwest of Key West. The storm, which could bring 8 inches of rain and a possible storm surge of 6 feet to the Keys, was moving west at 15 mph on a track that would keep the most destructive winds at sea.

 

"Fortunately, it wasn't a major hurricane that went right through the Keys. It hasn't been a worst-case scenario by any means," said Michelle Mainelli, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center."

 

 

Next stop - Texas.

 

TL - leon

[chesters1]

i hope flippa will be ok

[n4lly]

Chesters, flippa will be fine.

 

However have seen gulf temperatures registering

85 dc plus, that could (will) fuel Rita. it still has a 10% chance of being cat 5.

[Newt]

If it ain't one place, it's another.

 

I have a daughter & her family near Austin, Texas. I know several others on here have family in the state but not sure of their location. Granted, this track it pretty far in the future but .......

 

 

[ 21. September 2005, 12:40 AM: Message edited by: Newt ]

[Zigs]

time enough to make an urgent appointment for them in new york ?

 

tell them you've booked them into a posh hotel, time they get there & find you havnt, it'll be all over.

[Newt]

Well, my last picture is out of date on the low side. Storm is now at Cat3 and should be to Cat4 in a few hours. Warm water isn't as deep as it could be so if the storm slows it will weaken - at least until it gets near the coast - but it is still moving at a pretty good clip. Needs 10kts forward speed to get to and maintain Cat4. Moving at 14kts now. Dang good thing that Katrina had already lifted so much heat from the Gulf and spread it wide and far or we'd be looking at a Cat5 storm for sure.

 

It does look like the US is gonna keep all of Rita though so you folks will just have to make do with the remains of Philippe. Sorry.

[Leon Roskilly]

Newt,

 

We did get some 'fallout' from Katrina here, in the form of higher petrol(gas) and energy prices (due to damage to oil production and shipping installations in the gulf), which feeds through into the economy and politics.

 

So it's worrying to read about Rita:

 

Steve Gregory Blog

 

"With oil and product imports along with a very large proportion of oil and especially Natural Gas production located near Galveston north and east to off the coast of Louisiana -- the potential total impact on the U.S. energy production is almost of unimaginable levels."

 

 

 

 

But it's the people in the path of Rita that we need to worry about now and I hope that everyone in Texas is sensible (and elwewhere that could be affected by this storm) and stays safe. (My wife has a cousin in Texas who visited us a couple of years back. Not sure where in Texas exactly)

 

 

Tight Lines - leon

 

[ 21. September 2005, 08:15 AM: Message edited by: Leon Roskilly ]

[Newt]

Vagabond has a daughter and her family there I think.

 

And the track of this storm does take her over some oil rigs plus the gas pipelines on shore near Galveston.

 

I'm just glad the offshore rigs have warning and a good system for shutting down production so that even a rig ripped loose does not release lots of oil.

 

 

Gulf of Mexico Oil Rig Locations

 

[ 21. September 2005, 08:40 AM: Message edited by: Newt ]