Bring 'em on Newt

[Leon Roskilly]

Well we seemed to have coped with Hurricane Alex, though it did get a bit wet (shouldn't talk too soon, more rain a'comin).

 

Looks like Newt is lining up some more fun for us though:

 

http://www.metcheck.com/

 

"US Hurricane Watch

Added [Tuesday August 10 2004 : 10:35:51 AM]

 

If you thought our weather was going Pete Tong you may like to take a look across the pond to our American friends where two highly volatile systems could cause major problems in the next few days.

 

The first is Tropical Storm Bonnie, this is causing a real stir. A US recon plane went to investigate the system earlier this morning and reported at 10 mile wide eye which is almost unheard of for a system of this intensity, Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours based on GFDL data and states on current alert include Alabama, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

 

The second is Charlie which is looking a real beast at the moment, development is excellent and with warmer waters ahead plus low vertical wind shear the GFDL makes Charlie yet another hurricane in the next 3 days."

 

Hang on to that hat Newt

 

Tight Lines - leon

[Newt]

Yup. Bonnie is supposed to take a NE track and pass right over me but with several days over land, not much kick left. Unless, of course, it spends more time in the warm Gulf waters and makes landfall as a larger storm than predicted.

 

Charlie could be interesting. WNW track into the Gulf and anybody's guess at that point since they really can't predict the exact pressure ridges that will steer the thing but since it's tracking thru fairly warm water, it could get large.

 

Anybody wanna pop over for a visit right now?

 

[*Ant*]

Is that shed sturdy?

[Newt]

I'll let you know in a week or so.

[Newt]

It's a plot I say, a plot. I live at the red X.

 

 

[severus]

Looks like you live a few hours from the coast, Newt. Where do you fish down there?

[Newt]

Mostly I fish a couple of impoundment lakes along the Yadkin river. High Rock is probably the best known of the 4 lakes.

 

I rarely get to the coast for any salt water angling these days. I just like the fresh water stuff too well and am lucky to live where there are a wealth of good lakes not far from me.

 

Lake Wylie (just held the BassMasters tourney) is about an hour south.

[Cranfield]

My friends on the Panhandle, that are right in the path of both storms, are of the opinion that Bonnie will be no more than a storm when it reaches them (a breeze and soft rain when it gets to you Newt

 

Charlie is causing more concern, but its considered early days yet.

There is a view that it will turn right and pass across the upper part of Florida, back into the Atlantic.

 

Neither storm has been categorised as a Hurricane.

[Leon Roskilly]

Bullseye!

 

TL - leon

 

ps Good Luck

[Newt]

Aww shucks Cranfield. Here ya go injecting some reality into this.

 

We are pretty lucky that there is enough sheer (from another weather front) near Bonnie to keep her from doing much. Charlie could get big but not too likely although it most likely will be up to Hurricane strength by the time it crosses Florida.

 

Here's the latest 'official' stuff on Bonnie.

quote:

---

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004

 

latest reconnaissance reports indicate that Bonnie has not changed much. The pressure was down a bit...1001 mb...and the peak flight level winds were 44 kt. A dropsonde reported surface winds of 41 kt. Based on these data...the initial intensity estimate remains

40 kt. Deep convection has been limited for the last 12 hours but has been increasing markedly over the past couple hours...and the aircraft crew reported that Bonnie has a partial eyewall again. Bonnie will be passing over very warm water and has another 12 hours or so under light shear conditions...so there is still an opportunity for strengthening. The official forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance...but quite a bit less than the GFDL which continues to make Bonnie a hurricane. As Bonnie approaches the coastline...the shear is expected to increase and be a limiting factor on intensification.

 

The initial motion is 000/4. There has been little change to the forecast track or synoptic reasoning. Data from the G-IV jet mission last night show mid-level westerly flow is about to scoop Bonnie up. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a northeastward track that should take Bonnie to the Florida Panhandle within 30-36 hours.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

forecast positions and Max winds

 

initial 11/0900z 25.5n 90.5w 40 kt

12hr VT 11/1800z 26.7n 89.7w 45 kt

24hr VT 12/0600z 28.6n 88.0w 50 kt

36hr VT 12/1800z 31.0n 85.0w 35 kt...inland

48hr VT 13/0600z 34.0n 81.5w 30 kt...inland

72hr VT 14/0600z 43.0n 72.5w 30 kt...extratropical

96hr VT 15/0600z...absorbed

---