Bring 'em on Newt

[Cranfield]

Newt, sorry about the "reality check".

We were in the Florida Keys in August 1992, when Hurricane Andrew made landfall at Dade County.

 

We also experienced our own UK hurricane in October 1987, when we lost half of our house roof.

 

Two of the most fearful times in our lives.

I find it difficult to find any levity in the subject of hurricanes.

I pray that these dissipate and everyone stays safe.

[Newt]

These two (and especially Bonnie) should pretty much be non-events. We may get some rain from it Friday with the prediction now for her to dump from 1-2 inches on my area - depending on forward speed. But no serious wind. Charlie looks to never get to over a Cat1 storm and they are also pretty much non-events when you are talking Hurricane since the coast line buildings on the East Coast are hardened some against these storms.

 

Now Andrew in '92 was a serious storm and well worth remembering. Hopefully we'll manage to get thru the summer with nothing approaching that one.

[Newt]

Well, scratch my last comment about 'non-events'.

 

Bonnie has failed to get well organized so isn't much of a storm in terms of wind speed. However, she is pushing a large load of water along in front of herself and any places along her path thru Friday mid-day can expect lots of rain. Prediction for where I live is 2-4 inches by midnight Thursday. No problem since it's been fairly dry and the streams and ground can deal with most of that so only some minor flooding.

 

But we are getting a double-whammy because Charlie (now with 80 knot winds and predicted to reach 95-100 knots by landfall [and for any land-lubbers here, a knot is a nautical mile per hour so 2000 yards which is a bit over a mile so 95 knots = 110mph = 176kph] and to remain at tropical storm strength when it reaches us on Saturday. Add 45 knot winds and lots more rain to what we already will have had and I'm guessing we are looking at some serious flooding and lots of trees blown down after the ground gets so well lubricated by Bonnie.

 

Florida's west coast will catch the worst of this although not certain at this point how close together the two will make landfall and their paths aren't certain to match up until around South Carolina. But a Cat3 storm (Charlie at landfall) is considered a major hurricane and will do some serious damage as it is starting to do with Cuba right now with 80 knot winds.

 

[*Ant*]

Fogive my ignorance Newt but do you have to have safety measures for this kind of thing, i.e. shutters on the windows, a basement, generator etc?

[Newt]

Generator - I do have one although in my area all the electrical power lines are underground so absent a lightning strike that takes out a power substation, we seldom lose power. I also keep battery and oil lanterns.

 

Basement - the water table here is so high that a basement would be an in-house swimming pool or, if it were watertight, would float the house.

 

Shutters - yes but mostly decorative. Nearer the coast folks tend to either have good ones or, more often, to put plywood over any large expanses of glass.

 

I just looked at the local weather information for this area. Good stuff indeed.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Statement as of 6:13 am EDT on August 12, 2004 ...

Severe weather outlook ...

 

Several features are coming together across the region today to make for some very active weather. A front has stalled along the eastern Escarpment of the southern Appalachians as a deep trough of low pressure develops to the west. A strong jet streak at upper levels of the atmosphere is helping precipitation to Blossom along the frontal zone... and the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie are expected to approach the area and bring a large influx of tropical moisture.

 

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will steadily increase across the region today... with heavy rain being the main threat.

Please see the latest information in the Flood Watch effective until noon Friday for further details. As the remnants of Bonnie approach from the southwest late today and tonight... winds are expected to increase through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The wind field will also experience a favorable turning with height... which could allow some thunderstorms embedded in the rain bands around Bonnie to become severe. Isolated tornadoes are not uncommon in locations to the right of the circulation center of landfallen tropical systems.

 

The threat of isolated severe weather... including a possible tornado... will be greatest late today and tonight in Piedmont sections from Elberton to Chester and northward along the Interstate

77 corridor. This would include the Charlotte Metro area and points east.

 

Spotter groups should be prepared to activate late this afternoon and this evening. Dispatchers should ensure County emergency management officials are aware of this information.

 

Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1145 am until 600 PM EDT.

 

Tornadoes... hail to 0.5 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

 

The Tornado Watch area is along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Southern Pines North Carolina to 45 miles west southwest of Savannah Georgia.

 

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.

Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

 

Other watch information... continue... ww 742... Discussion... tornado potential is expected to increase during the afternoon as Tropical Storm Bonnie moves onshore and vertical shear becomes more favorable.

[Leon Roskilly]

When Bonnie has finished soaking you Newt, she's due to cross tha Atlantic, no longer a tropical storm, but still carrying a lot of moisture across to dump on us early next week, just as parts of the country begin to recover from the floods that followed the arrival of the remains of Hurricane Alex, during the last week.

 

Keep safe.

 

Tight Lines - leon

 

ps Watch Bonnie do her stuff here:

 

http://www.beachview.com/st_george_is_640.htm

 

And Charley here:

 

http://www.wtvt.com/stpete.htm

 

[ 12. August 2004, 07:17 PM: Message edited by: Leon Roskilly ]

[Newt]

Charlie begins to say Hello to Florida

 

 

And goodby to Cuba

 

 

[ 13. August 2004, 12:53 PM: Message edited by: Newt ]

[Newt]

Charlie has moved ashore in Florida as a Cat4 storm (Cat5 is the largest but Cat4 is bad news). Should be back over water for a while late tonight or tomorrow to pick up more water and speed then back over land.

 

From the extended track it certainly looks like he will be headed your way in a few days. In case your geography is a little rusty and so you can locate things on the lat/long grid lines

London 51º 32" North and 0º 5" West

Liverpool 53º 25" N and 3º 0" W

 

 

If you have relatives in Florida, hope they evacuated along with slightly over 1,000,000 other folks. If you have a holiday scheduled there in the near future, call in a week or so to make sure the place is still in existance.

[chesters1]

quote:

---

Fogive my ignorance Newt but do you have to have safety measures for this kind of thing, i.e. shutters on the windows, a basement, generator etc?

---

if they had safety in mind they wouldnt live in wooden shacks ,each one providing spears to penetrate the next

have been watching some "moving" progs (brits thinking of moving to florida) yes the houses are cheap and huge compared to british ones but their made of paper and sticks ,luckily the wolves are gone otherwise there would be a housing shortage even our new houses are being made this way throw away that hammer drill to put up a picture just push that pin in the wall if ofcourse the wall will support it!

 

[ 13. August 2004, 10:53 PM: Message edited by: chesters1 ]

[Leon Roskilly]

Two more Tropical Depressions (4 & 5), likely to build to Hurricanes, are waiting their turn

 

 

 

 

Better bring your UK holiday forward Newt.

 

 

On the other hand.........

 

"Although Bonnie didn't quite make it to hurricane status, it hasn't stopped the system joining forces with a temperate low and now has her sights set on the UK.

 

So what can we expect? well there are already noticeable differences between Bonnie and Alex. Alex reached us at the end of a heatwave, had to contend with a European blocking pattern and crossed the Atlantic very quickly.

 

Bonnie will bring copious amounts of rainfall, in fact by this time next week much of the UK will have seen around another 5cm of rainfall, the main feature however will be the wind... ready for an autumnal gale? you'd better be..."

 

TL - leon

 

[ 14. August 2004, 12:00 AM: Message edited by: Leon Roskilly ]