weather sites

[The Flying Tench]

As I understand it, forecasting the weather is technical stuff. The met office employ quite a few scientists to do this stuff. But most of the weather websites don't, as far as I know. So you'd think www.metoffice.gov.uk would be miles ahead of the others, but I don't know anyone who uses it, and I can't even get onto it today for some reason.

 

Is it that the met office supply the raw data, and the various weather sites have got different models they use for the actual forecasting? even if that's right it's surprising they can beat the met office.

[Renrag39]

The raw data isn't solely from the Met Office. They do have many stations from ground stations and upper atmospheric weather balloons but also use 'non-met office' satellite data that they incorporate into their preferred programming.

 

This might help http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

 

It all comes down to the programs each group use to convert the raw data. Even the programs themselves vary each cycle, going through several permutations and analysing each outcome, hundreds and hundreds of times. What we recieve as a forecast is the 'most likely' result. In effect the median of the less extreme/most likely 60%?(guess) and then re-run the program another few hundred times until it stabilises into something that matches or approaches the approximate best guesses of the 'old school' predictions from actual human analysis.

 

Regarding the accuracy of each 'groups' programming sets, each will have its day. It also depends on its 'goal'. i.e. The Met office want to provide a balanced and accurate overall view of the coming weather, the BBC uses the processed data from TMO and plays with it a bit more using older but confirmed data (thats whythe BBC seem about 6 hours behind TMO). XCWeather focuses on wind patterns, strengths and the pressures that define them, the same with windguru. Metcheck just seem to be in it for a giggle etc...

 

Well, thats how I'm led to believe it works...? It could just be MAGIC!

 

Renrag

Edited December 18, 2011 by Renrag39

[chesters1]

weather sites, where do they get their info?

 

the nearest asylem ,you can look at any of them (especially the tv ones) and their predictions will change overnight ,even comparing two or three their prediction varies!

best is to look out of the window and thats more accurate than the best ,the more they spend on computers the more inaccurate it appears to get

 

chesters long term forcast is it will get colder before it gets warmer interspersed with frost ,rain or snow and occasional wind

Edited December 18, 2011 by chesters1

[Snatcher]

A site that I use a lot is Windguru It was charter skipper Ian Burrett of Onyermarks fame who put me onto it.

 

Of all the different forcasting sites its the one I prefer.

 

John

[arbocop]

A site that I use a lot is Windguru It was charter skipper Ian Burrett of Onyermarks fame who put me onto it.

 

Of all the different forcasting sites its the one I prefer.

 

John

 

 

Thnaks that's a good link. Not much good for us landlubbers, but when I go beach fishing on my holidays it will be excellent.

[Leon Roskilly]

Climb out of the Medway valley and from the top look down at the plain to the south and very often you are looking at very different weather.

 

Similarly, depending on the general synopsis, weather along the North Kent coast, facing the Thames and Medway estuaries, is often very different to that along the South coast facing the channel.

 

Add to that the weather can change quite quickly.

 

The problem is that the forecast is for 'Kent' and for the 'afternoon'.

 

 

So somebody wanting a forecast for 1 pm and another wanting a forecast for 3:30 pm, and perhaps in different parts of Kent, probably aren't going to be very happy when they have relied on such a general forecast when planning their day's fishing.

 

Being aware of the general weather pattern, and how the weather is affected by local conditions under different patterns is often essential for anglers, and the 'detailed forecasts' given by the Met Office, BBC and various weather sites should just be used as a very unreliable, but very useful guide.

[The Flying Tench]

Thanks - Renrag particularly - fully answers my question.

[Chris Plumb]

Metcheck just seem to be in it for a giggle etc...

 

Well their forecasts are a joke!

 

 

C.