Weather Forecasting accuracy on tv and radio.

[Alan Stubbs]

Henry Gilbey's blog this week was about the accuracy of weather forecasts having declined over the years.

 

I like Henry's writing - it's witty and provocative, and I don't entirely agree with what he's said this week - so I replied. I'd be interested in other people's thoughts.

 

I wrote: "I divide my time living between Liverpool and North Kent. Liverpool is a naturally much wetter climate than North Kent, but strangely more predictable and evenly temperate than Kent.

 

I have noticed improved accuracy on 24 hour forecasts over the last few years (hardly something to celebrate, when you consider the vagueness, platitudes and generalisations of the tv and radio forecasts!) but long term forecasts are less reliable than a delivery promise from a private courier.

 

There was a piece I read somewhere over the last 12 months, suggesting that the Met.Office was likely to lose the BBC contract to a New Zealand company on grounds of cost, and that the NZ company was responsible for the BBC weather graphics already.

 

I'm never going to win a Nobel Prize, but the quality of information - especially the generalisations of the aforementioned tv and radio forecasts - has been dumbed down past the point of tolerance. All because a bunch of Tristrams and Ruperts seem to think they know what the public want.

 

I'll tell you what they want: Concise, accurate regional forecasts which are specific over 3-5 days and more prognosticatory for 14 - 30 days.

 

I can tell you what I don't want: Half a 5 minute forecast telling us what the weather was like over the PREVIOUS 24 hours. That, for the benefit of the obviously hard of thinking programme editors, ISN'T a forecast... it's a recent history! DUH!!! Rant over.

[chesters1]

The BBC is either Dumming Down or more probably ill informed (for a company that supplies supposed "truth" its even worse) if i hear the Tower of westminster being described as "BIG BEN" once more i will scream ,its not a tower ,its not a bloody clock its a bloody bell with a crack in it you cannot see it from the road nor even if your standing by the clock!

as for weather forecasts today watch even a day ahead and half the time they're wrong ,another strange thing is the pollen dooda ,yes if its dry its high wet its low why the forecast i expect those that suffer carry their remedy anyway ,half the time just swapping TV channels gives you a completely different forecast

Edited November 13, 2010 by chesters1

[corydoras]

I'll tell you what they want: Concise, accurate regional forecasts which are specific over 3-5 days

Then they will be waiting a long time methinks. The weather is to chaotic to predict with any real accuracy that far in advance

[corydoras]

The BBC is either Dumming Down or more probably ill informed (for a company that supplies supposed "truth" its even worse) if i hear the Tower of westminster being described as "BIG BEN" once more i will scream ,its not a tower ,its not a bloody clock its a bloody bell with a crack in it you cannot see it from the road nor even if your standing by the clock!

as for weather forecasts today watch even a day ahead and half the time they're wrong ,another strange thing is the pollen dooda ,yes if its dry its high wet its low why the forecast i expect those that suffer carry their remedy anyway ,half the time just swapping TV channels gives you a completely different forecast

Makes me cringe when I hear folks say 'the tower of Westminster", it's "Westminster Clock Tower" or just the "Clock Tower". The clock itself is "The Great Clock".

[poledark]

I live down in the south east of Kent........the bit that sticks out into the sea...near to the continent...........with a range of quite high downs. Depending on the wind direction I am affected by either one (or more) of these. North comes down the north sea, South from the channel (and sw, and w) NW comes down across land. East winds come from the continent and from far away cold places.

 

OK if you live in the middle of a large land mass, but GB is a pretty small island and subject to so many influences and to make things worse, we are in one of the strips that surrounds the globe where most of "the weather" seems to happen.

 

Despite this, they seem to get it right pretty often, even as accurate as within 30 mins on many occasions, but also we get a lot of "near misses" the rain forecast misses by 30 miles or drops just the other side of the downs, the frost can be severe down in the Stour valley only 3 miles away, but 200ft higher we get none!

 

One of my interests is to watch the clouds rolling by either N or S of the high grond, storms raging out to the south (sea) or tracking along the north downs (thames estuaryand north sea) Rain clouds from the W seem to part and run either side of us up on the downs

 

Knowing how such a small distance can make such a dramatic difference in my locality makes me quite sympathetic to the forecasters

 

Den

[barry luxton]

Not much bothered with regards to the forecasts during work time, you get wet or you don't.

 

However more importantly, during the fishing times, i like to have a pretty much accurate assessment of either we go or we don't subject to the wind. So the 3 day wind forecasts are pretty much close to the mark for me, long may it continue.

[Bigfishy]

I check the forecast on both the BBC and the Met office website and that the weather changes from one forecast to another!

[corydoras]

It's not often that I agree with BOTH Barry and Den simultaneously but on this occasion I wholeheartedly concur with you both.

[chesters1]

Makes me cringe when I hear folks say 'the tower of Westminster", it's "Westminster Clock Tower" or just the "Clock Tower". The clock itself is "The Great Clock".

easier to say than clock tower of westminster ,just how many towers does it have?

Edited November 13, 2010 by chesters1

[corydoras]

I check the forecast on both the BBC and the Met office website and that the weather changes from one forecast to another!

The can't vary that much, they are both Met Office forecasts. If you checked the NOAA forecast or the French METEO for the same region you would in all probability get a slightly different outlook. Such is the chaotic nature of the systems one is trying to predict.