How long until we run out of petrol

[davedave]

So now i'm learning to drive, and obviously very excited, but i have this horrible worry at the back of my mind that it won't be that long until petrol runs out, or gets so expensive that it's not worth digging for oil, or so expensive it's just not worth running a car anymore. How long do you think it is until we run out of oil?

 

Then what, we'll all be driving automatic electric cars like dodgems.

 

I have a 1.2 clio and it costs about £50 - £60 to fill it up from empty, can it really be that long until it's £90 - £100?

 

I really want to drive and now i'm caught up with this stupid idea in my head and it's bugging me, anybody want to reassure me that it's a long time until the petrol runs out?

 

Dave

[Ken L]

Given the size of the oil sand reserves in Canada and Venezuela, we wont be running out anytime soon. The question is, will you be able to afford it given both the additional costs of extraction and the eccomomic state of this country ?

Edited October 16, 2011 by Ken L

[davedave]

This is what worries me, if 20 years ago a full tank cost a tenner, now it costs roughly seven times that, how long until its over a hundred?

[Phone]

davedave,

 

When I was a pup your age gas (petrol) was $0.12 a gal. I guess with exchange rates, from the day that would be about a £0.05 a liter. In fact, I believe it was still sole in British gallons in those day.

 

I wouldn't worry if I were you. Necessity is the mother if invention. Petrol has about run it's course for basic transportation I think? Just don't know what's on the "other side". In the meantime, it's hard on my fixed income as well. You're not alone.

 

Phone

[Elton]

Petrol is getting more expensive, but modern cars are far more economic than their predecessors.

 

It's idiots like me who insist on running around in old cars who suffer

[Leon Roskilly]

It's idiots like me who insist on running around in old cars who suffer

 

 

Since you bought your latest toy Elton, analysts have downgraded their estimates of remaining petrol oil reserves significantly (increasing price pressure on everyone else!)

 

(Just as the estimates were inflated when news leaked that Elton had taken up cycling!)

 

Edited October 17, 2011 by Leon Roskilly

[Steve Walker]

The imminent cessation of the oil supply has been predicted as long as I can remember - in fact, for much longer than I've lived.

 

Potted history of oil running out predictions here.

 

I think we are likely to see alternative energy sources coming online before we run out of oil. Electric power is going to become much more significant in cars, either as pure electric vehicles or as plug-in hybrids. There are problems with that though - we don't have the sustainable generating capacity in place or planned to power them.

 

I'm hoping for biofuels - not current ones, produced from agricultural crops, but next generation ones produced from dedicated (probably GM) organisms farmed outside traditional agricultural land. That's at least partly because I've not yet seen an electric car I want, though - the best of them so far was the Tesla, which was basically an electric Lotus Elise, inferior to the car it was based on and double the price.

 

The thing about UK fuel prices is that you have to remember that a large proportion of the pump price is tax. If you pay £1.35 a litre at the pump, that breaks down as 53.55p to extract, manufacture, distribute and sell the litre of fuel and 81.45p to the treasury. Because electricity is hardly taxed at all (5% VAT), electric cars look to be really cheap to run. Once people start switching en masse, though, and the treasury starts losing funds, a way will be found to tax electric car users too. Maybe road pricing, maybe a dedicated taxed socket, maybe a simple tiered tax rate on domestic electricity.

[corydoras]

The imminent cessation of the oil supply has been predicted as long as I can remember - in fact, for much longer than I've lived.

 

Potted history of oil running out predictions here.

 

I think we are likely to see alternative energy sources coming online before we run out of oil. Electric power is going to become much more significant in cars, either as pure electric vehicles or as plug-in hybrids. There are problems with that though - we don't have the sustainable generating capacity in place or planned to power them.

 

I'm hoping for biofuels - not current ones, produced from agricultural crops, but next generation ones produced from dedicated (probably GM) organisms farmed outside traditional agricultural land. That's at least partly because I've not yet seen an electric car I want, though - the best of them so far was the Tesla, which was basically an electric Lotus Elise, inferior to the car it was based on and double the price.

 

The thing about UK fuel prices is that you have to remember that a large proportion of the pump price is tax. If you pay £1.35 a litre at the pump, that breaks down as 53.55p to extract, manufacture, distribute and sell the litre of fuel and 81.45p to the treasury. Because electricity is hardly taxed at all (5% VAT), electric cars look to be really cheap to run. Once people start switching en masse, though, and the treasury starts losing funds, a way will be found to tax electric car users too. Maybe road pricing, maybe a dedicated taxed socket, maybe a simple tiered tax rate on domestic electricity.

That's a pretty crappy study Steve. As far as I can see it takes no account if the predicted growth in consumption of fossil fuels by China and India. Personally I think that petro-chemicals will become too expensive to burn before we actually run out of them.

[Steve Walker]

That's a pretty crappy study Steve. As far as I can see it takes no account if the predicted growth in consumption of fossil fuels by China and India. Personally I think that petro-chemicals will become too expensive to burn before we actually run out of them.

 

Only posted it for the potted history of oil running out predictions, Jim - I'm sure you also remember reading as a child that we were nearly out of oil.

[corydoras]

Only posted it for the potted history of oil running out predictions, Jim - I'm sure you also remember reading as a child that we were nearly out of oil.

It's not an if it's a when Steve. I still reckon the stuff will be far to expensive to burn before it actually runs pout.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/taylor/taylor040307.html

http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1139..._the/index.html

 

There are LOTS of big elephants in this room