So you think you have a logical mind?

[chesters1]

no ofcourse not i dont play games of chance especially with stolen money ,hey just a minute you never mentioned one of yours had a tenner under it ,definitely not!!!!

the odds dont change you will win or you will lose however many cups are involved even bloody whole teasets.

how about two tenners under two cups the odds remain the same either i get it or i dont ,some people will lose even if theres a tenner under all the cups it then becomes will i keep it will i not ,everthing is 50 50

Edited September 7, 2009 by chesters1

[Steve Walker]

What if there are 100 cups, one with a tenner under it. You choose one. I must offer you the choice of the one you've picked or all of the other 99?

[chesters1]

i have the exact same chance i except your offer but give away the tenner under my original choice ,i win or i lose.your betting on odds but its all chance there are none bar 50 50.

yes or no ,win or lose ,live or die ,chance has no odds otherwise the casino at monty carlo would lose every night,even if i could pick 2 cups out of the original 3 chance is both would be empty.

 

games of chance have winners they are called bookies real logic says not to attempt to play them

Edited September 7, 2009 by chesters1

[GlennB]

If your strategy is "I'll always stick, because it makes no difference", then you'll win 1/3 of the time. Which are the odds of having been dealt the £10 in the first place. Which makes perfect sense.

 

1/3 of the time the dealer has 2 empty cups and can show you either. It doesn't matter. You stick and you must win.

 

2/3 of the time the dealer has the £10 and must show you the empty cup. When this happens the £10 is bound to be under the remaining cup, and by sticking you are certain to lose.

 

1/3 + 2/3 =1, so that all adds up.

 

But you're in good company :

 

In her book The Power of Logical Thinking, vos Savant (1996:15) quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini as saying "... no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time" and "that even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they insist on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer."

 

[ayjay]

If your strategy is "I'll always stick, because it makes no difference", then you'll win 1/3 of the time. Which are the odds of having been dealt the £10 in the first place. Which makes perfect sense.

 

1/3 of the time the dealer has 2 empty cups and can show you either. It doesn't matter. You stick and you must win.

 

2/3 of the time the dealer has the £10 and must show you the empty cup. When this happens the £10 is bound to be under the remaining cup, and by sticking you are certain to lose.

 

1/3 + 2/3 =1, so that all adds up.

 

But you're in good company :

 

In her book The Power of Logical Thinking, vos Savant (1996:15) quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini as saying "... no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time" and "that even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they insist on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer."

 

 

 

The other way to prove to the doubters (incuding me) is to increase the number of cups.

 

Take 1000 cups - pick one - your odds are 1000/1 of getting the right one.

 

Now turn over 998 of the remaining 999 cups just leaving one (which will have the tenner unless you picked it first time) and see if you want to switch.

 

The odds of it being under yours are still 1000/1 - but for the one remaining cup the odds are 998/999.

[greg long]

I wouldn't get out of bed for a tenner....

[Chris Goddard]

I don't see how it can Chris

There is one right answer, i.e. you've a better chance if you switch, and two wrong answers. End of story. I know that it's very counter-intuitive but that's they way it is.

 

Hrumph, you were saying????? ;-)