Met Office denies it's forecast a severe winter

[Steve Burke]

I'm seeing more and more reports of an extreme winter. One even quotes the Met Office as a source (http://www.london24.com/news/big_freeze_to_hit_london_coldest_winter_in_years_forecast_1_3058413). It reports that "Ice cold temperatures could last as long as three months, the Met Office has warned, as England prepares for its coldest winter in years."

I first saw this story on a newsstand in the Daily Express, a paper that has a reputation for sensationalising weather stories. A couple of weeks ago it forecast the coldest winter since 1947. Interestingly it didn't quote a source, instead referring if I remember correctly to "forecasters". Who were these mystery forecasters? Fortune tellers on the end of a pier?

So I e-mailed the Met Office. This was the fast reply I had:

"We do produce a three-month outlook which is used to support the contingency planning community in serving the nation, and this is where yesterday's headlines have originated from. This three-month outlook is a complex product which shows the range of probabilities for both temperature and precipitation for the whole of the UK over a one and three-month period. It does not give one forecast for what's ahead - rather it outlines potential scenarios and their associated probabilities and is designed for people who make longer-term strategic resourcing decisions based on their preferred exposure to risk.

Please see our blog written by the press office which explains our response to the headlines and our winter outlook in more detail: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/"

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Steve Burke

[chesters1]

Perhaps they are just looking outside and seeing the mass of food on the trees this autumn ,some will link a large crop with a bad winter others just see acorns

The met office cannot predict 12 hours ahead i cannot possibly see them doing anything more than speculating anything more

They have now got the habit of making everything more severe than it usually is ,no-one complains the weather is better than predicted so they have become lazy ,you might as well poke your head out of the window and look ,they probably do and use tbe millions of quid computers to download porn

Edited November 30, 2013 by chesters1

[Steve Burke]

Chesters, firstly the berry crop predicting a hard winter is an old wives' tale. The crop depends on past conditions, not future ones.

 

And the forecasts are now way more accurate than they used to be. But still not accurate enough to predict more than about 5 days ahead with any degree of certainty.

[chesters1]

Come on look at the bbc weather on red button it changes more times in a day than traffic lights

[Steve Burke]

Dave, we have a very serious problem family problem at the moment. So I'm not in the mood tonight to be drawn into your contrarian views.

[chesters1]

So to disagree is not allowed? Speak to yourself then

 

Note your own post "range of probabilitiess" this is exactly what i said ,its a broad spectrum from lovely and warm to arctic conditions to everyone else! Its not prediction its speculation

It could get cold stockpile salt ,it may stay warm save money on salt

Edited November 30, 2013 by chesters1

[Steve Burke]

Dave, you're welcome to disagree. Normally I find your provocative comments amusing and sometimes even thought-provoking. However tonight I don't. So I'll simply leave it to others to reply.

 

I'd much prefer to discuss how and why the Daily Express and others are so at variance with the Met Office. Of course such sensationalism sells papers. But you can only cry wolf so many times.

 

What do others think about such reporting?

[corydoras]

Dave, you're welcome to disagree. Normally I find your provocative comments amusing and sometimes even thought-provoking. However tonight I don't. So I'll simply leave it to others to reply.

 

I'd much prefer to discuss how and why the Daily Express and others are so at variance with the Met Office. Of course such sensationalism sells papers. But you can only cry wolf so many times.

 

What do others think about such reporting?

The standard of science reporting is abysmal in this country and most of the population are scientifically illiterate. It's cool to be as thick as sh!t these days Steve.

[Vagabond]

I'd much prefer to discuss how and why the Daily Express and others are so at variance with the Met Office. Of course such sensationalism sells papers.

I think you answer your own question there Steve. I never buy the Express or Mail, but sometimes get handed one when boarding a plane.

If bored, I skim through it for something to do other than beat the in-board computer at chess. Weather "forecast" ? Load of rubbish, like most of the content

The other thing the Express sensationalises is "breakthroughs in medicine"

 

 

Back in May this year, Norma and I made our own long-range forecast that December here would be dark, cold, damp and polluted with the noise of "Christmas Bells" in all the shops, fliers re "Christmas offers" through the door and getting worse as the winter solstice approached. So we booked a flight to Australia and will tour Victoria for a couple of weeks until we visit "rellies" in Tasmania. There's no tinsel in rural Australia

[big_cod]

The express is a total joke with its mental weather forcasting if i aint mistaken there was pictures of empty supermarket shelves a few weeks ago hysteria about the weather or is it somebody in the express paper who has a shares in one of main supermarket chains the papaer is a joke and makes it up as it goes along.

 

paul.