big_cod 146 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Martin 5-1 best price http://sea-otter2.co.uk/Probably Whitby's most consistent charterboat Link to post Share on other sites

Martin56 340 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Martin 5-1 best price PM replied to mate & thank you once again Fishin' - "Best Fun Ya' can 'ave wi' Ya' Clothes On"!! Link to post Share on other sites

Phone 753 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 All, Let me see? Chesters1 sees any single event as having only two predictable outcomes. Makes sense, he has defined the rules leaving only one possible outcome for each independent event. (I.e. yes or no stated as 50/50) If you have a bag of 10 balls, 5 red 5 blue, Chesters1 can "predict" with 100% accuracy it is likely if you remove an object from the bag it will be a ball that is either red or blue. However "odds" are probability of an event even occurring - ever. 50/50 if a tossed coin lands it will land "heads, tails, edge" or not at all with 100% accuracy. The is no probability in his equation. Probability says the coin must come down and is likely to be either a heads or a tails which you can predict as 50/50 ODDS PROBABILITY is how likely an even is to occur. You can give probability or likelihood a mathematical number called (incorrectly) "ODDS" Can you predict the probability of it being either a red ball or a blue ball as an option. The odds are 50/50 Phone Just trying to help Chesters1 Link to post Share on other sites

Martin56 340 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) "Odds" are quoted by bookmakers - loosely based on the probability that the "Favourite" will more than likely win!! All, Let me see? Chesters1 sees any single event as having only two predictable outcomes. Makes sense, he has defined the rules leaving only one possible outcome for each independent event. (I.e. yes or no stated as 50/50) If you have a bag of 10 balls, 5 red 5 blue, Chesters1 can "predict" with 100% accuracy it is likely if you remove an object from the bag it will be a ball that is either red or blue. However "odds" are probability of an event even occurring - ever. 50/50 if a tossed coin lands it will land "heads, tails, edge" or not at all with 100% accuracy. The is no probability in his equation. Probability says the coin must come down and is likely to be either a heads or a tails which you can predict as 50/50 ODDS PROBABILITY is how likely an even is to occur. You can give probability or likelihood a mathematical number called (incorrectly) "ODDS" Can you predict the probability of it being either a red ball or a blue ball as an option. The odds are 50/50 Phone Just trying to help Chesters1 The probability on Heads or Tails is always the same - 50/50. Sports betting is very very different!! A bit like Life Insurance!! That's betting how long you think you'll live, against how long THEY think you won't!! Questions like are you a smoker & how many tips the odds in their favour for a start. Outcome is - they always win, everyone dies eventually - it's all about "Turn over".- some quicker than others!! Edited November 7, 2018 by Martin56 Fishin' - "Best Fun Ya' can 'ave wi' Ya' Clothes On"!! Link to post Share on other sites

Phone 753 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Martin, You are way ahead of me for sure. You put your "money where your mouth is", I do not. I thought the "morning line" was randomly posted by some track employee, usually the "handicapper" but that is not a requirement - can be about anyone I'm told. Then, in horse racing are the odds from that point forward based on monies bet or likelihood of winning against today's field? Pay attention, that was a question. In any event - "odds" are the probability of a specific outcome expressed as arithmetic. I just don't know if the "event" is based on beating the "favorite" or beating the "field" (i.e. winning). I'm sure in the multitude of possible bets one must know something of the animals, jockeys, trainers, who has a hay bill due and so on. I always put $2.00 to win if the jockey has a little ball on his cap. Phone Link to post Share on other sites

Huge_Vitae 592 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Not gone back over what Chesters has said Phone but, I think you are confusing what his point is. To put it in your own example, if you put four red balls and four blue balls into a bag and say you are going to pull out a red ball you have a fifty fifty chance of being right or wrong, equally if you add four white balls and four black balls and say you are going to pull out a red ball you will be right or wrong, therefore it is a fifty fifty split. Equally each time you flip a coin it can only be 50/50, you have to remember that luck has no memory, if you decide to flip a coin twenty times and after nineteen results result in heads the chance of it being tails remains 50/50. You are confusing chance with odds. Want to buy a berleybomb? email sales( remove [email protected])berleybomb.com "My imaginary friend doesn't like your imaginary friend is no basis for armed conflict...." Link to post Share on other sites

corydoras 472 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) Not gone back over what Chesters has said Phone but, I think you are confusing what his point is. To put it in your own example, if you put four red balls and four blue balls into a bag and say you are going to pull out a red ball you have a fifty fifty chance of being right or wrong, equally if you add four white balls and four black balls and say you are going to pull out a red ball you will be right or wrong, therefore it is a fifty fifty split. Equally each time you flip a coin it can only be 50/50, you have to remember that luck has no memory, if you decide to flip a coin twenty times and after nineteen results result in heads the chance of it being tails remains 50/50. You are confusing chance with odds Then let me clarify my position. I am always talk about mathematical probability. The probability of winning the jackpot in the lottery are 1 in 45,057,474. They are never 50:50. If a horse runs 100 races and wins 80 the probability of winning is 80/100 or 0.80 or 80%. Its odds are 80/20 or 4 to 1. it is not 50:50 it will either win or it won't. What are the odds that if I deal you a thirteen card hand from a completely randomly shuffled standard pack of playing cards it will contain four aces? I'll give you a clue. They are not "evens". Edited November 8, 2018 by corydoras The problem isn't what people don't know, it's what they know that just ain't so.Vaut mieux ne rien dire et passer pour un con que de parler et prouver que t'en est un!Mi, ch’fais toudis à m’mote Link to post Share on other sites

Martin56 340 Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Martin, You are way ahead of me for sure. You put your "money where your mouth is", I do not. I thought the "morning line" was randomly posted by some track employee, usually the "handicapper" but that is not a requirement - can be about anyone I'm told. Then, in horse racing are the odds from that point forward based on monies bet or likelihood of winning against today's field? Pay attention, that was a question. In any event - "odds" are the probability of a specific outcome expressed as arithmetic. I just don't know if the "event" is based on beating the "favorite" or beating the "field" (i.e. winning). I'm sure in the multitude of possible bets one must know something of the animals, jockeys, trainers, who has a hay bill due and so on. I always put $2.00 to win if the jockey has a little ball on his cap. Phone The odds Phone are based on the bookies liabilities on a given event. I like to make my selections based on decent past form rather than recent, hence getting a bigger price (odds) The betting market is based on many variants - Trainers who can "Get one Ready" (at big odds) & Trainers who have the best horses. Yes for certain - racing is fixed at times, but that's OK as long as one is on the right side of the fix!! It's very complicated. Fishin' - "Best Fun Ya' can 'ave wi' Ya' Clothes On"!! Link to post Share on other sites

Martin56 340 Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) Then let me clarify my position. I am always talk about mathematical probability. The probability of winning the jackpot in the lottery are 1 in 45,057,474. They are never 50:50. If a horse runs 100 races and wins 80 the probability of winning is 80/100 or 0.80 or 80%. Its odds are 80/20 or 4 to 1. it is not 50:50 it will either win or it won't. Cory, the handicapper is looking at the results so therefore weight is added in the saddle cloth based on performance in order to even out it's future chances. Horse racing is so complex, weight for age & sex being just one (or is that 2??) - I could go on forever!! Not to mention "Twisting Trainers". I was once a part owner of 3 or 4 Horses!! Edited November 8, 2018 by Martin56 Fishin' - "Best Fun Ya' can 'ave wi' Ya' Clothes On"!! Link to post Share on other sites

corydoras 472 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Cory, the handicapper is looking at the results so therefore weight is added in the saddle cloth based on performance in order to even out it's future chances. Horse racing is so complex (weight for age being just one - I could go on forever!!) Martin, that is why I have never been in a bookies shop in my puff. It's an effing mug's game and I ain't no mug. At least in motorsports, they don't hitch a friggin caravan on the back of your car if it wins too much. Indulge me a wee bit and I'll tell you a funny story. Many moons ago on a miserable wet Saturday afternoon, I decided to stay at home with my Grandad rather than go into town shopping with my Mother and Grandmother. Once the ladies had left old Grandad put the telly on to watch the afternoon's racing on the box and I sat up on his knee and watched too. I think it was the first time that I had watched horse racing on the box. Grandad had the paper out studying form and picking horses ( but he never went into a bookies and squandered money on a horse). After a wee bit, I asked if I could pick a horse too and he agreed. The first horse I picked came first, as did the second and the third. I skipped a couple of races then picked a fourth and that came in first too. Grandas was amazed and asked me how I had done it. I informed him that it was easy. I liked the grey ones. The problem isn't what people don't know, it's what they know that just ain't so.Vaut mieux ne rien dire et passer pour un con que de parler et prouver que t'en est un!Mi, ch’fais toudis à m’mote Link to post Share on other sites

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